Mountain Wave Forecast Model

Stratospheric Forecasts: Western USA
(stopped 26 February 2004)

26 February 2004: NRL has terminated all funding for the MWFM 6.2 research and validation project. Consequently, due to staff cuts we are no longer able to provide operational twice-daily troposphere-stratosphere mountain wave forecasts for the sectors indicated below or to continue validation work with associated colleagues at various centers. We will continue to provide forecasts on a campaign basis for contract customers, such as NASA scientists involved in this summer's MidCiX campaign. We will also continue our R&D efforts at a reduced level focusing more on science and related issues.

IMPORTANT: You must read the following disclaimer and security notices before proceeding. Subsequent use of the forecasts on this web page constitutes an agreement on your part to these terms and conditions: Disclaimer Notice
Security Notice
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All Forecasts are valid at 12:00 UT on the day in question
 
The NCEP GFS forecast job runs at ~03:20 EST and 05:20 EST each day.
The NOGAPS forecast job runs twice daily runs at  ~08:00 EST and ~20:00 EST, utilizing the NOGAPS 0Z and 12Z forecast update cycles, respectively. You can keep track of today's MWFM-NOGAPS forecast runs by checking the new logfile.


Mountain Wave Turbulence Potential at 70-100 hPa
100-70 hPa corresponds roughly to the flight altitude interval FL530-FL600.

Forecast

0/12 hour 24/36 hour 48/60 hour 72/84 hour 96/108 hour

NCEP


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NOGAPS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1


70-50 hPa corresponds roughly to the flight altitude interval FL600-FL670.

Forecast

0/12 hour 24/36 hour 48/60 hour 72/84 hour 96/108 hour

NCEP


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NOGAPS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1


50-30 hPa corresponds roughly to the flight altitude interval FL670-FL720.

Forecast

0/12 hour 24/36 hour 48/60 hour 72/84 hour 96/108 hour

NCEP


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NOGAPS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

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Naval Research Laboratory