Mountain Wave Forecast Model

Stratospheric Forecasts: Middle East
(stopped 26 February 2004)

26 February 2004: NRL has terminated all funding for the MWFM 6.2 research and validation project. Consequently, due to staff cuts we are no longer able to provide operational twice-daily troposphere-stratosphere mountain wave forecasts for the sectors indicated below or to continue validation work with associated colleagues at various centers. We will continue to provide forecasts on a campaign basis for contract customers, such as NASA scientists involved in this summer's MidCiX campaign. We will also continue our R&D efforts at a reduced level focusing more on science and related issues.

IMPORTANT: You must read the following disclaimer and security notices before proceeding. Subsequent use of the forecasts on this web page constitutes an agreement on your part to these terms and conditions: Disclaimer Notice
Security Notice
Click here for the latest news on these and other MWFM forecasts.....
When viewing this page as well as each forecast plot map, remember to click the Refresh/Reload button on your browser to make sure you are viewing the latest forecast map, and not an old cached version on your local machine. If in doubt, check the dates and forecast hours on the forecast map, located on the top right side of each plot.

All Forecasts are valid at 12:00 UT on the day in question

  • An NCEP GFS  forecast job runs at ~03:20 EST, 05:20 EST each day, acquiring these forecasts from NASA GSFC as a failsafe to the additional NCEP GFS run outlined below.

  • The NOGAPS forecast job runs twice daily runs at  ~08:00 EST and ~20:00 EST, utilizing the NOGAPS 0Z and 12Z forecast update cycles, respectively. You can keep track of today's MWFM-NOGAPS forecast runs by checking the logfile.

  • NCEP GFS  forecast jobs now run at ~01:00 EST and 13:00 EST  each day, acquiring the 0Z and 12Z initialized forecast cycles of the NCEP GFS model directly from NCEP . In particular these new forecasts also use an entirely different axis-scaling and color scale, and are provided for now for test assessment in response to user comments for improvements in existing plots. Use with caution for now. Instruction on them are to be found here and should be read.


Mountain Wave Turbulence Potential at 70-100 hPa 
100-70 hPa
corresponds roughly to the flight altitude interval FL530-FL600.

Forecast

0/12 hour 24/36 hour 48/60 hour 72/84 hour 96/108 hour

NCEP GFS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NOGAPS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NCEP GFS
test plot format


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1


70-50 hPa corresponds roughly to the flight altitude interval FL600-FL670.

Forecast

0/12 hour 24/36 hour 48/60 hour 72/84 hour 96/108 hour

NCEP GFS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NOGAPS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NCEP GFS
test plot format


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1


50-30 hPa corresponds roughly to the flight altitude interval FL670-FL720.

Forecast

0/12 hour 24/36 hour 48/60 hour 72/84 hour 96/108 hour

NCEP GFS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NOGAPS


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

NCEP GFS
test plot format


MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

MWFM1.1 (blk)
MWFM-2.1

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Naval Research Laboratory